As the real poll date draws close, speculations and media polls are on a rise in America. Most polls put Biden in a comfortable high single digit lead over President Trump but if we have learnt anything from the 2016 elections, it is that one must never declare the election before the real count comes in, that is the electoral college count. That is what matters.
Though his chances of getting the magic number of 270 look bleak as of now, no political analyst can afford to count President Trump out of the election.
Two reports came out in the last week, The Cook Political Report and the 538. Both of them put Biden ahead.
The Cook report by Amy Walters gives a solid 248 electoral college votes to Biden whereas Trump seems to be getting 204. The 538 report by Nate Silver paints an even more dire picture for Trump as it predicts a landslide for Biden with 368 electoral college votes and Trump seems to be getting a paltry 170.
Though both reports predict a Joe Biden victory, anyone who would declare the election over for Trump would be naive. It would all come down to how both the candidates rile up their respective vote bases.
Biden's policy views have got the young voter interested. Biden has promised to raise the minimum wage, to work towards ending student debt and also favours a little gun control. These stands will help him through the blue states and the undecided swing voter may also be interested. That's the edge Biden holds over Trump.
The swing voter has always been the key but it is more so this time in a deeply divided United States where the fault lines are clearly visible.Hillary Clinton’s loss in 2016 was at least partly attributable to the millions of Barack Obama voters who shifted their support to Donald Trump. Now they may swing back and going by the recent polls they will.Trump may not be swing voter's first choice due to his handling of recent issues be it the Covid-19 pandemic or the recent protest against racism.
Trump has been under fire ever since he assumed office. He knows how to deflect the criticism. He did the same with the handling of the pandemic. He did not take the threat of Covid-19 seriously at first but when things got out of control, he pinned all the blame on China. And his voter base firmly backs him on that.
There is no question about Trump pulling the historically red states and Biden pulling the historically blue states. It's the swing states that will prove a headache for him. And as things stand, the purple seems to be turning blue.
The writer is a student of International Politics at the MMAJ Academy of International Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia. Interested in both national and international politics. The views expressed are personal.