Vladimir Putin (L), Narendra Modi (C), and Xi Jinping at the SCO Summit in Tianjin, on September 1, 2025.
The evolving strategic scenario in Asia, marked by China’s military ascendancy and America’s recalibrated foreign policy approach, demands a radical reassessment of India’s long-term geopolitical positioning. However, as someone who has spent decades observing the strategic landscape from India’s vantage point, this author believes we must examine these developments through a more nuanced lens – one that prioritizes India’s long-term interests over short-term geopolitical alignments.
Some analysts’ assessment of China’s growing military capabilities and America’s apparent strategic retreat is undoubtedly accurate. The admission by the United States’ defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, on April 12 about China’s hypersonic missile capabilities destroying US aircraft carriers within 20 minutes represents a sobering reality check for American naval supremacy. Yet this military calculus should prompt India to reconsider its strategic approach rather than merely lament Taiwan’s precarious position.
India and China share a 3,488-kilometre border – the longest disputed frontier in the world. Geography is destiny, and we cannot escape the fundamental reality that these two ancient civilizations must coexist. The romantic notion of perpetual confrontation serves neither nation’s interests, particularly when both face enormous developmental challenges affecting over 2.8 billion people.
Read also: As Sergio Gor lands, India must map its own course amid Trump’s SA reset
America’s Diminishing Moral Authority
The US’s handling of Gaza and its inconsistent Iran policy has severely undermined its claim to global moral leadership. When Washington selectively applies principles of international law and human rights, it loses credibility among nations that have experienced western colonialism and interference. The sight of American diplomatic cover for actions that much of the global south considers unjustifiable has accelerated the search for alternative power structures.
President Donald Trump’s transactional approach to international relations, exemplified by his tariff wars launched on April 9, further erodes America’s soft power. His characterization of India as a “dead economy” on July 30, followed by the imposition of 50% tariffs on August 27, demonstrates the volatility that defines American foreign policy under presidents who prioritize domestic political considerations over strategic partnerships.
India is too significant – economically, demographically, and strategically – to remain hostage to the whims of American presidents who change every four to eight years. The stark contrast between the Obama administration’s “Pivot to Asia” strategy, which elevated the US-India partnership, and Trump’s current dismissive approach illustrates this volatility perfectly.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Washington on February 12-13 and Trump effectively abandoned India on the Hindu persecution issue in Bangladesh – after a reporter put a poser before him, it became clear that American support comes with conditions that may not align with Indian interests.
Read also: Amnesia vs Engagement – A soldier’s view on India’s China dilemma
Bold Framework for Resolution
Stability breeds prosperity, and India must pursue long-term solutions to its border disputes rather than manage perpetual tensions. The time has come for imaginative and out-of-the-box diplomacy regarding our border with China. Arunachal Pradesh, including the sacred town of Tawang, remains India’s non-negotiable red line. However, pragmatic compromise on territories like Aksai Chin – where Chinese control is already established and which holds limited strategic value for India could unlock enormous possibilities.
Accepting the current line of actual control (LAC) as the official border in areas where both sides maintain physical control would end decades of uncertainty. Such an agreement would free enormous resources currently devoted to border management and military posturing.
Similarly, the Kashmir dispute requires bold thinking beyond conventional frameworks. Creating mechanisms for free movement of Kashmiris across the entire historical region – including Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Kashmir – could transform a source of conflict into a bridge for cooperation.
This approach would acknowledge ground realities while addressing the human dimension of Partition as well as the 1947-48 India-Pakistan war’s legacy. Free movement and cultural exchange could gradually heal wounds that have festered for over seven decades.
Read also: India’s Eastern Front – New battleground that could eclipse Pakistan
Emerging Asian Century
The informal G3 arrangement between the United States, China, and Russia that appears to be crystallizing represents a new form of spheres of influence. Rather than being marginalized by this development, India should position itself at the centre of an alternative power structure that includes China, Russia, Iran, and eventually Pakistan.
India must simultaneously deepen its relationship with the Taliban in Afghanistan and recognize it as the legitimate government of the country. Despite international reluctance, the Taliban controls Afghan territory and has demonstrated relative stability in governance since 2021. Recognition would provide India with strategic leverage in the region while opening economic opportunities in Afghanistan’s mineral rich landscape.
The Taliban’s pragmatic approach to international trade, evidenced by their continued commercial relationships with China and Pakistan, suggests they prioritize economic development over ideological purity.
Along with this, India must further deepen its ties with Iran, which have been on the backburner for a while now in New Delhi’s scheme of things. Iran’s strategic position controlling the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 30% of global oil shipments pass, makes it an indispensable regional partner. The completion of the Chabahar port project would provide India with direct access to Central Asian markets while bypassing Pakistani territory entirely.
Read also: Devil’s Triangle: India’s strategic nightmare that could choke northeast
Iran’s recent admission to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation demonstrates its growing integration with Asian institutions, making Delhi’s engagement even more crucial.
This dual engagement strategy would help keep Pakistan in check and push China to cooperate with India because of Beijing’s substantial economic and strategic interests with both Kabul and Tehran. China’s investments in Iran under the 25-year cooperation agreement signed in 2021, combined with its growing trade relationship with Taliban-controlled Afghanistan, create natural pressure points for Chinese accommodation of Indian interests. When India maintains strong relationships with both countries, Beijing cannot afford to alienate New Delhi without risking its own regional partnerships.
Such a bloc would naturally attract nations from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America that have grown weary of western dominance. The collective economic weight and demographic strength of this grouping would be formidable. With over half the world’s population and increasingly sophisticated military capabilities, it would represent a genuine multipolar alternative.
The economic momentum supporting this transformation is undeniable. Asia now accounts for approximately 60% of global GDP when measured by purchasing power parity, a stark reversal from the 1970s when the west dominated the global economic output. China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), despite its flaws, has demonstrated the appetite for Asian-led infrastructure development across three continents. India’s growing digital economy, with over 800 million internet users and a rapidly expanding technology sector, positions it as a natural leader in the digital transformation of developing nations.
The demographic dividend further strengthens this case. While the west grapples with ageing populations and declining birth rates, Asia’s median age remains significantly lower, providing the human capital necessary for sustained economic growth. India’s working-age population is projected to peak around 2040, offering nearly two decades of demographic advantage that could fuel unprecedented economic expansion if properly harnessed through regional cooperation rather than perpetual military standoffs.
Financial architecture is already shifting eastward. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), established despite American opposition, now boasts over 100 members including traditional US allies. Similarly, currency-swap arrangements and the growing use of local currencies in bilateral trade are gradually reducing dependence on dollar-dominated financial systems, creating the foundation for truly independent Asian economic governance.
Read also: China’s Brahmaputra Gambit – A strategic assessment of Motuo dam
Nato’s Declining Relevance
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s expansion eastward and its involvement in conflicts far from the North Atlantic has stretched its credibility thin. Many European nations are already questioning the wisdom of automatic alignment with American foreign policy adventures. A strong Asian bloc would accelerate this questioning and potentially lead to more independent European foreign policies.
Countries like France and Germany, with significant economic interests in Asia, would find compelling reasons to maintain balanced relationships rather than choosing sides in a new Cold War framework.
The alliance’s internal contradictions have become increasingly apparent. Turkey’s independent foreign policy, particularly its complex relationship with Russia and growing ties with Central Asian states, demonstrates that even Nato members prioritize national interests over alliance cohesion when circumstances demand. France’s nuclear independence doctrine and President Emmanuel Macron’s calls for “strategic autonomy” reflect similar thinking among core European powers.
Recent European reluctance to support unlimited military aid to Ukraine, coupled with growing domestic pressure over energy costs and immigration, reveals the limits of Atlantic solidarity. The 2023 French riots and subsequent social unrest across European cities highlight internal vulnerabilities that make extended global commitments increasingly untenable. European leaders recognize that their continent’s future prosperity depends more on Asian markets than on military adventures in distant regions.
The economic cost of maintaining Nato’s expanded presence is becoming prohibitive for many members. Defence spending requirements of 2% of GDP strain national budgets already burdened by social welfare obligations and climate transition costs. Meanwhile, Asian nations invest these same resources in infrastructure development and technological advancement, creating a growing competitiveness gap that threatens European economic relevance in the coming decades.
Furthermore, America’s own commitment to European security appears conditional on domestic political winds. The recurring debates about burden-sharing and the isolationist tendencies within American politics suggest that European nations would be wise to develop alternative security arrangements that do not depend entirely on Washington’s goodwill.
Read also: Network-Centric Warfare – Pakistan’s edge and India’s wake-up call
Regional Transformation
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) member countries, caught between American and Chinese pressures, would welcome a broader Asian framework that reduces their need to choose sides. Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia – despite their current security arrangements with the United States – would be compelled to develop constructive relationships with a unified Asian bloc that controls crucial supply chains and markets.
This transformation would not happen overnight, but the economic logic is compelling. Trade follows geography, and Asia’s economic integration is an irreversible trend.
The practical benefits of such regional transformation are already visible in smaller initiatives. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, despite excluding India initially, has created the world’s largest free trade area encompassing nearly a third of global GDP. This demonstrates the potential for Asian-led economic integration when political will exists. Vietnam’s success in attracting manufacturing investment from both Chinese and American companies illustrates how smaller nations can benefit from great power competition when they maintain strategic neutrality.
Technology transfer and innovation networks are increasingly Asia-centric. South Korea’s semiconductor expertise, Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing capabilities, Japan’s precision engineering, and India’s software services create natural complementarities that transcend political boundaries. Chinese investment in regional infrastructure, from high-speed rail networks to digital payment systems, is creating interconnected economic ecosystems that would be difficult to unravel even if political tensions escalate.
The cultural dimension reinforces these economic trends. Shared historical experiences of colonialism, similar family structures, and complementary philosophical traditions provide a foundation for cooperation that western nations cannot replicate. The popularity of Asian cinema, cuisine, and cultural products across the region demonstrates organic integration that transcends government policies.
Most significantly, the next generation of Asian leaders has been educated in Asian universities, speaks Asian languages, and thinks in Asian timeframes. Unlike their predecessors who often looked to western capitals for validation, these emerging leaders view regional cooperation as natural and necessary rather than idealistic or threatening to sovereignty.
Read also: Beijing cannot dictate the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation
The Path Forward Beyond UN
The United Nations, designed for the post-World War II order, has become increasingly irrelevant in addressing contemporary challenges. A new Asian-led institution could provide more effective governance for regional issues while offering an alternative to western-dominated international organizations.
This does not require dismantling existing institutions but rather creating parallel structures that better reflect current power realities.
Several analysts’ prediction of Chinese military action against Taiwan in 2027 may indeed come to pass. However, India’s response should not be to lament this development but to ensure it occurs within a framework that enhances rather than threatens Indian security.
A strong partnership with China would eliminate the war scenario with both China and Pakistan that has dominated Indian strategic planning for decades. With the western border secured through accommodation with China and Pakistan, India could focus its developmental energies on economic growth rather than military preparedness for such a war.
Read also: With FM Munir in Pakistan’s charge, India must see the ‘black swan’ coming
The decline of American global dominance is not a catastrophe to be prevented but a transition to be managed intelligently. Asia’s time has indeed arrived, and India must position itself not as a junior partner in someone else’s great game but as a co-architect of a new regional order.
The world’s centre of gravity is shifting inexorably towards Asia. India can either be a passive observer of this transformation or an active participant in shaping it. The choice we make in the coming years will determine whether the 21st century becomes truly Asian or remains trapped in the paradigms of the past.
History will judge whether we had the courage to seize this moment of unprecedented opportunity or remained prisoners of inherited conflicts that serve no contemporary purpose. The children of Asia deserve better than endless confrontation based on boundaries drawn by colonial powers and sustained by Cold War thinking.
The time for bold decisions has arrived. India’s strategic independence demands nothing less.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect the views of India Sentinels.
Follow us on social media for quick updates, new photos, videos, and more.
X: https://twitter.com/indiasentinels
Facebook: https://facebook.com/indiasentinels
Instagram: https://instagram.com/indiasentinels
YouTube: https://youtube.com/indiasentinels
© India Sentinels 2025-26
