File photo showing Indian and Chinese troops during an “Exercise Hand in Hand” interaction in Chengdu, China.
As the prime minister, Narendra Modi, prepares for his first visit to China in seven years to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin, a new geopolitical reality appears to be crystallizing across South Asia. The recent imposition of US tariffs on Indian goods has upended regional dynamics, prompting New Delhi to recalibrate its strategic partnerships in ways that seemed unthinkable just months ago.
The most striking development has been China’s unexpected public support for India regarding American trade restrictions. This diplomatic backing marks a significant departure from the traditionally cautious approach Beijing has maintained toward India-US economic relations. The gesture signals a potential shift in how both Asian giants view their relationship within the broader context of evolving global power structures.
Signs of Deeper Engagement
The economic dimension of this warming relationship has moved beyond symbolic gestures. China has recently reopened its markets to several Indian products, a move that coincided remarkably with Washington’s decision to impose punitive tariffs. This timing suggests a coordinated response designed to offer India alternative economic pathways.
More tangibly, direct flights between the two countries will resume within days after years of suspension, facilitating business and cultural exchanges. Perhaps most symbolically significant for millions of Hindu devotees, the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra has recommenced via the Lipulekh pass, representing not just religious accommodation but a gesture of trust in managing sensitive border areas.
The visit of the Chinese foreign minister, Wang Yi, to New Delhi, followed by Modi’s acceptance of the invitation to attend the SCO summit, sends an unmistakable message to Washington. These high-level diplomatic exchanges demonstrate that both nations retain significant agency in shaping regional partnerships, regardless of external pressures.
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Military Cooperation – A Complex Proposition
The prospect of renewed defence cooperation between India and China presents both opportunities and challenges that require careful analysis. Historical precedent suggests such collaboration is not unprecedented, although it demands delicate handling given the complex security environment both nations navigate.
Between 2016 and 2020, before the Galwan valley confrontation fundamentally altered bilateral dynamics, defence exchanges flourished. The-then defence minister, Manohar Parrikar, undertook significant visits to Chinese military establishments, while the Indian Army chief, General Dalbir Suhag, and the Northen Army commander, Lieutenant General Ranbir Singh, engaged in substantive military diplomacy with their Chinese counterparts.
These exchanges were reciprocated by senior Chinese ministers and military officials visiting Indian defence installations. Joint military exercises, although limited in scope, provided valuable insights into each other’s operational capabilities and strategic thinking. The suspension of these activities following the 2020 border clashes represented a significant setback in military-to-military relations.
Strategic Considerations
Any revival of defence cooperation must acknowledge the stark reality of China’s military superiority in the region. Beijing’s defence spending dwarfs India’s, and its technological capabilities in areas such as missile systems, naval power projection, and cyberwarfare represent significant asymmetries that New Delhi must factor into any collaborative framework.
Moreover, China’s extensive military partnerships with Pakistan and Bangladesh create a complex regional security matrix. Beijing’s provision of advanced weapons systems to Islamabad, including JF-17 fighter aircraft and missile technology, directly impacts India’s strategic calculations. Any defence cooperation with China must therefore be carefully calibrated to avoid compromising India’s core security interests.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, part of Beijing’s broader Belt and Road Initiative, has militarized aspects that extend Chinese influence deep into territories India considers strategically vital. This infrastructure development, particularly in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK), represents a fundamental challenge to Indian strategic interests that cannot be overlooked in any cooperative arrangement.
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Managing Perpetual Tension
The 3,488-kilometre frontier between India and China remains one of the world’s longest disputed borders, encompassing three distinct sectors with fundamentally different historical and legal bases for territorial claims. The line of actual control (LAC) has been relatively stable since the 1962 war, but periodic tensions underscore the fragility of existing arrangements.
The Galwan incident of June 2020, which resulted in the first combat casualties along the border in 45 years, demonstrated how quickly situations can escalate despite established protocols. The fact that both sides managed to de-escalate through military commander-level talks, followed by diplomatic engagement, suggests that institutional mechanisms for crisis management have matured significantly.
Since 2020, both armies have implemented confidence-building measures that go beyond previous arrangements. Regular border personnel meetings, joint verification of infrastructure development near the border, and enhanced communication protocols have reduced the likelihood of misunderstandings escalating into confrontations.
Opportunities for Limited Cooperation
Despite these challenges, several areas offer potential for meaningful defence cooperation without compromising either nation’s core security interests. Peacekeeping operations under United Nations auspices represent one such avenue, where both countries have extensive experience and could benefit from coordinated approaches.
Maritime security in the Indian Ocean presents another opportunity, particularly regarding piracy, humanitarian assistance, and disaster relief operations. China’s growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean need not be viewed solely through a competitive lens; coordinated efforts in non-traditional security threats could build confidence while serving mutual interests.
Military medicine and defence technology in non-sensitive areas offer additional possibilities. Both nations have made significant strides in military medical capabilities, and exchanges in this domain could enhance the welfare of armed forces personnel while building professional relationships.
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The American Factor
The role of US trade policy in catalyzing this India-China rapprochement cannot be understated. Washington’s increasingly transactional approach to partnerships has created space for alternative relationships to flourish. However, this should not be interpreted as a fundamental realignment of either India or China away from their respective global partnerships.
India’s commitment to strategic autonomy, a cornerstone of its foreign policy since independence, provides the framework for engaging with China without abandoning other partnerships. This approach allows New Delhi to pursue cooperation with Beijing while maintaining robust defence relationships with the United States, France, Israel, and Russia.
The challenge lies in managing these multiple relationships without creating contradictions that could undermine India’s strategic interests. Defence cooperation with China must therefore be carefully structured to complement, rather than compete with, India’s existing security partnerships.
Pragmatic Pathways
The path toward enhanced defence cooperation requires incremental confidence-building rather than dramatic gestures. Regular military commander meetings could be expanded to include discussions on non-traditional security threats such as terrorism, cyber security, and climate-related challenges that affect both militaries.
Joint training exercises could resume, which will provide opportunities for both the militaries to understand each other’s tactics, military culture and training philosophy. When seen in the light of the fact that the troops of the two nations face each other 24/7 across the 3,500-kilometre LAC, it seems all the more pertinent.
Stability and Prospects
The broader implications of improved India-China relations extend far beyond bilateral concerns. As the two most populous nations and largest economies in Asia, their relationship significantly influences regional stability and global economic patterns. Enhanced cooperation could contribute to resolving other regional disputes and reducing tensions that have hindered economic integration across Asia.
However, both nations must acknowledge that sustainable cooperation requires addressing fundamental disagreements rather than simply managing them. The border dispute, while not necessarily requiring immediate resolution, needs a framework that prevents it from periodically disrupting broader relationships.
The current moment presents a unique opportunity shaped by external pressures and internal calculations in both countries. Whether this opportunity translates into substantive cooperation depends largely on the political will of leadership in both Beijing and New Delhi to move beyond historical grievances toward pragmatic engagement.
As India and China navigate this delicate recalibration of their relationship, the international community watches with keen interest. The decisions made in the coming months could reshape not only South Asian security architecture but also influence global power dynamics for decades to come. The challenge lies in building cooperation that serves both nations’ interests while contributing to regional stability rather than merely responding to external pressures.
The road ahead requires patience, pragmatism, and a clear-eyed assessment of both opportunities and limitations. Success will be measured not in dramatic breakthroughs but in the steady accumulation of trust and cooperation that can withstand future challenges.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect the views of India Sentinels.
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